The US government is telling everybody that inflation is 3.4% per year. That is not correct. Try 14.2% and that’s about right. Source : gold/usd 1 year simple moving average.
Hey, I can play this game, too! The real inflation rate is closer to 150%. Source: Bitcoin was $27k last year, now it’s $67k
My source sucks, but so does yours
Buy bitcoin, fuck the govetnmyth
So the government has gotten every university and financial institution on the planet to go along with their ruse? I mean after faking a moon landing that sounds trivial.
The US is saying 3.4% because inflation is based on a consumer price index. It’s not a good metric because it doesn’t account for housing, education, healthcare and most other major expenses.
However, gold is an awful metric for the value of the currency. No single product can be a good metric alone. And gold is famously effected by speculation. People buy gold when the future of the currency seems uncertain.
Exactly. People buy gold when the future of the currency seems uncertain. And yet, the simple moving average of gold has risen 7.1% since January 1st of 2024. And so if inflation continues, at the pace it is, then it will be 14.2% by the time December 31st rolls around.
Did the USD deflate significantly between 2012 and 2016? Your gold based metric says yes.
From what I remember, those years were pretty steady and didn’t do much.
I’ll accept without evidence that real inflation feels a lot higher than 3.4%, but proposing short term shifts in the price of gold, or any other single commodity as a better metric is just nuts.
Well, shadow stats agrees with me. According to the way they measured inflation in the 1980s, we are about 12%. So even if my estimate was wrong, it’s not off by far.
And the way they measured back then included things such as, oh, I don’t know, food and energy, which are two things everybody just happens to need.
shadow stats
Bruh.
You’re speculating on what gold will be worth in six months. You have no idea if the current trends will hold or not. It’s not like the value of gold over the course of the past hundred years is a steady consistent climb. Past performance isn’t always indicative of future results.
You do have a point there. However, I would also point out that even the government inflation numbers say they are barely dropping and yet rates are the highest they’ve been in 20 years and the banking sector is going to have a big meltdown because of this commercial real estate. So yeah, it’s speculation, but it’s speculation based on data and trends.
I might accept the premise that inflation is higher than officially reported, but I don’t accept the relevance of your evidence in support of that premise.
Speculation on the price definitely occurs, which is why I chose to use the one-year simple moving average instead. Measure it from January 1st, 2024, till today, and you see that it’s risen 7.1%. So if inflation keeps up like it has been, and it appears to be, then it would be 14.2% higher by December 31st.
Why do you think gold and inflation are related in any significant way? Nobody buys anything with gold, so I don’t see how it’s relevant.
Because gold is the traditional hedge against inflation. When inflation starts running rampant, people start taking their fiat currencies and trading them for hard assets such as gold.
It’s not, bonds (i.e. TIPS) and real estate are. As inflation goes up, so do coupon rates to counter inflation. As inflation goes down, so do rates, meaning older individual bonds can be liquidated for more money to free up cash for other investments.
Gold is a hedge against stocks. People think gold has value, so they buy it if they think there will be a recession. Inflation often goes up when stocks go down because the Fed slashes rates to encourage spending, and more spending (demand) drives up prices. So gold may appear correlated to inflation, but it’s really more inversely correlated to stocks.
So if you want to speculate on stocks going down, gold is a decent option. But if you think inflation will go up, bonds are the way to go.
The best way to go is to ditch their system entirely and stop using money that they can just print out of thin air and tax you through inflation at all. You’re right about the investment of bonds. When your bond has high rates and the rates go down, your bond can sell for more. But I don’t want the US dollar at all. Actually. In fact, I don’t want to buy a bond from any country, no matter where it’s at, because all countries have fiat currencies.
