The US government is telling everybody that inflation is 3.4% per year. That is not correct. Try 14.2% and that’s about right. Source : gold/usd 1 year simple moving average.
The US government is telling everybody that inflation is 3.4% per year. That is not correct. Try 14.2% and that’s about right. Source : gold/usd 1 year simple moving average.
Exactly. People buy gold when the future of the currency seems uncertain. And yet, the simple moving average of gold has risen 7.1% since January 1st of 2024. And so if inflation continues, at the pace it is, then it will be 14.2% by the time December 31st rolls around.
You’re speculating on what gold will be worth in six months. You have no idea if the current trends will hold or not. It’s not like the value of gold over the course of the past hundred years is a steady consistent climb. Past performance isn’t always indicative of future results.
You do have a point there. However, I would also point out that even the government inflation numbers say they are barely dropping and yet rates are the highest they’ve been in 20 years and the banking sector is going to have a big meltdown because of this commercial real estate. So yeah, it’s speculation, but it’s speculation based on data and trends.
I’ll accept without evidence that real inflation feels a lot higher than 3.4%, but proposing short term shifts in the price of gold, or any other single commodity as a better metric is just nuts.
Well, shadow stats agrees with me. According to the way they measured inflation in the 1980s, we are about 12%. So even if my estimate was wrong, it’s not off by far.
And the way they measured back then included things such as, oh, I don’t know, food and energy, which are two things everybody just happens to need.
Bruh.
Did the USD deflate significantly between 2012 and 2016? Your gold based metric says yes.
From what I remember, those years were pretty steady and didn’t do much.