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Cake day: June 11th, 2023

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  • The game plan is the same as the game plan for the Mac, but they’re going to run it in a fraction of the time because they already have the playbook. Apple’s not in the business of “intentionally taking a loss,” Apple is in the business of slowly iterating products into platforms over strategic time spans. That’s exactly what they’ll do here.

    The OLED displays are severely supply constrained; I doubt Apple can produce more than one or two million in 2024. With so few units available, there are more than enough dyed-in-the-wool Apple fans and die hard VR geeks with $4k to burn to guarantee that it will be sold out until 2025.

    This first million will create an ecosystem for the platform in the form of third-party software and enthusiast communities. The successful launch will entice more suppliers to make the OLEDs, increasing availability and reducing cost. That paves the way for a sans-Pro Apple Vision for $2,500 sometime in 2025 or 2026. The cycle repeats: more users, bigger community, more evangelists, more word of mouth, more software, cheaper components, and then Apple ships Apple Vision Air in 2027 or 2028 for $1,500. Then in 2030, Apple Vision Air 2 comes out but the original is still for sale at $999.

    Now we’re looking at Apple’s standard good/better/best product matrix that they use for the iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch, and Mac, and we’re also looking at a relatively Mac-like price range starting at a grand but with options running well above $5k.

    The original Mac sold for $2,495 in 1984 which is about $7,000 adjusted for inflation. Apple’s kicking this new platform off for half the entry price. No one knew what the heck the Mac was supposed to be for in 1984 either, but the entire desktop computing paradigm was forged in its image. We’re now looking at a second Mac.












  • Bingo. It was kinda cute at first when it was still trying to be funny, but as the parody pretense slowly fell away it just got boring.

    The strangest part about it is how each episode is a remix of a Trek episode and yet the remix makes it very clear that the writers just don’t get it. For example, season 2’s “Blood of Patriots” is a rearrangement of “The Wounded,” but the subplot about Mercer and Malloy being best friends forever trivializes what TNG successfully depicted as a nuanced dilemma.

    There’s no accounting for taste, but it genuinely surprises me that there seems to be so many Star Trek fans who think it’s any good. On the other hand, it seems pretty safe to say that season 3 was the last, so clearly the actual numbers were unremarkable.